Risk factors and prediction model of anastomotic leakage after McKeown esophagectomy
- VernacularTitle:McKeown食管癌术后吻合口瘘的危险因素分析及预测模型建立
- Author:
Lei DAI
1
;
Zixue REN
1
;
Anqing ZHANG
1
;
Rongxin ZHANG
1
Author Information
1. Department of Thoracic Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of University of Science and Technology of China, Anhui Cancer Hospital, Hefei, 230031, P.R.China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Esophageal cancer;
anastomotic leakage;
risk factors;
prediction model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery
2020;27(12):1436-1440
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To investigate the risk factors for anastomotic leakage after McKeown esophagectomy, and to establish a risk prediction model for early clinical intervention. Methods We selected 469 patients including 379 males and 90 females, with a median age of 67 (42-91) years, who underwent McKeown esophagectomy in our department from 2018 to 2019. The clinical data of the patients were analyzed. Results Among the 469 patients, 7.0% (33/469) patients had anastomotic leakage after McKeown esophagectomy. Logistic analysis showed that the risk factors for anastomotic leakage were operation time >4.5 h, postoperative low albumin and postoperative hypoxemia (P<0.05). A prognostic nomogram model was established based on these factors with the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.769 (95%CI 0.677-0.861), indicating a good predictive value. Conclusion Operation time >4.5 h, postoperative low albumin and postoperative hypoxemia are the independent risk factors for anastomotic leakage after McKeown esophagectomy. Through the nomogram prediction model, early detection and intervention can be achieved, and the hospital stay can be shortened.
