Analysis of the epidemic of COVID-19 in six neighboring provinces of Hubei based on the network data
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2020.05.002
- VernacularTitle:基于公共网络数据的湖北毗邻六省市新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情分析
- Author:
Ying JIANG
1
;
Hong ZHANG
2
Author Information
1. Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Xiangya Hospital Central South University，Changsha, Hunan 410008, China
2. Nursing department, Xiangya Hospital Central South University，Changsha, Hunan 410008, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Coronavirus diseases 2019;
Epidemic;
Trend analysis
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2020;31(5):6-10
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the development and changes of novel coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) in the six neighboring provinces of Hubei. Methods The COVID-19 epidemic data of Hubei and its six neighboring provinces released by the National Health and Health Commission and local governments from January 11, 2020 to March 22, 2020 was collected. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of cumulative confirmed cases, daily new confirmed cases and daily average confirmed cases according to the daily change percentage (DPC) and average daily percentage change (ADPC). Results As of March 22, 2020, a total of 5,036 confirmed cases were reported in the six neighboring provinces of Hubei, among which Henan, Hunan and Anhui ranked the top three, with 1,272, 1,018, and 990 cases, respectively, accounting for 65.13% of the total cases. The inflection points of the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the six provinces were January 24 and February 5, with an average growth rate of 5.27% [ADPC (95% CI) = 5.27% (3.71%, 6.85%), P < 0.05)], which was different from Hubei where the inflection points of the cumulative diagnosis number were February 2 and February 15, with an average growth rate of 10.77 % [ADPC 9995% CI) = 10.77% (9.12%, 12.44%), P < 0.05]. The average number of new cases per day in 28 days, 21 days, 14 days and 7 days from the last case report (February 28, Hunan) was 116.93, 55.48, 12.93 and 1.86, respectively, showing a significant downward trend (DPC 95%CI = -79.04（-88.95, -43.62）%, P<0.05). The peak number of new cases per day in the six neighboring provinces occurred on February 4 (309 cases), and the inflection point was February 5, showing a sharp increase (DPC = 25.53%, P < 0.05), and then a rapid decline (DPC = - 28.46%, P < 0.05). The total case fatality rate of the six provinces was 0.79%, which was lower than that of Hubei (4.65%). Conclusion The measures taken by the six provinces and cities adjacent to Hubei Province in the prevention and control of domestic imported risks are active and effective. It is necessary to summarize and optimize the strategies in time to prevent possible second transmission in the future.
