Analysis of models of infectious disease dynamics of COVID-19

VernacularTitle:新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）传染病预测模型分析
Author: Yashu LIU ¹ ; Qiun WU ¹ ; Yihan LU ² ; Yuhong ZHAO ¹
Author Information

1. Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang 117004, China;Clinical Research Center, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University Shenyang 117004, China
2. Fudan School of Public Health, Shanghai 200433, China
Publication Type:Journal Article
Keywords: COVID-19; New coronavirus; Prediction models; Prevention strategies
From: Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2020;31(3):10-13
CountryChina
Language:Chinese
Abstract: Objectives To analyze the studies about predicting COVID-19 by math models, to provide evidences and experiences to reduce the hazard of COVID-19. Methods PubMed, CNKI and other databases were searched for studies involving math models of COVID-19, and the studies were compared with each other and the real data. Results A total of 21 publications were included. SIR, SEIR and other models were used to predict the prevalence and evaluate the interventions. The results were predicted by SEIR^+CAQ model were the closest to the actual situation. And the control measures have effectively restrained COVID-19. Conclusion Characteristics of COVID-19 and prevention measures should be concerned, when predicting the epidemic trend of COVID-19.