Principles of dynamics model and its application in forecasting the epidemics and evaluation the efforts of prevention and control interventions
10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20200315-00340
- VernacularTitle: 传染病动力学模型的理论基础及在疫情防控中的应用价值
- Author:
Yongyue WEI
1
;
Yang ZHAO
1
;
Feng CHEN
1
;
Hongbing SHEN
1
Author Information
1. School of Public Health/Center for Global Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Forecasting;
Epidemics;
COVID-19;
Transmission dynamics model;
Evaluation
- From:
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
2020;54(6):E032-E032
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
During the epidemics of COVID-19 in domestic China and recently continuing rapid spread worldwide, a bunch of studies fitted the epidemics by transmission dynamics model to nowcast and forecast the trend of epidemics of COVID-19. However, due to little known of the new virus in early stage and much uncertainty in the comprehensive strategies of prevention and control for epidemics, majority of models, not surprisingly, predict in less accuracy, although the dynamics model has its great value in better understanding of transmission. This comment discusses the principle assumptions and limitations of the dynamics model in forecasting the epidemic trend, as well as its great potential role in evaluation the efforts of prevention and control strategies.
