Risk assessment and early warning of imported COVID-19 in 21 cities, Guangdong province

Jianxiong HU; Tao Liu; Jianpeng Xiao; Guanhao HE; Zuhua Rong; Lihua Yin; Donghua Wan; Weilin Zeng; Dexin Gong; Lingchuan Guo; Zhihua Zhu; Lilian Zeng; Min Kang; Tie Song; Haojie Zhong; Jianfeng HE; Limei Sun; Yan LI; Wenjun MA

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Risk assessment and early warning of imported COVID-19 in 21 cities, Guangdong province

VernacularTitle: 广东省21个地级市新型冠状病毒肺炎输入风险评估与预警
Author: Jianxiong HU ¹ ; Tao LIU ¹ ; Jianpeng XIAO ¹ ; Guanhao HE ¹ ; Zuhua RONG ¹ ; Lihua YIN ¹ ; Donghua WAN ¹ ; Weilin ZENG ¹ ; Dexin GONG ¹ ; Lingchuan GUO ¹ ; Zhihua ZHU ¹ ; Lilian ZENG ¹ ; Min KANG ² ; Tie SONG ² ; Haojie ZHONG ² ; Jianfeng HE ² ; Limei SUN ² ; Yan LI ² ; Wenjun MA ¹
Author Information

1. Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
2. Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention Guangzhou 511430, China
Publication Type:Journal Article
Keywords: COVID-19; Risk assessment; Early warning
From:Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2020;41(5):658-662
CountryChina
Language:Chinese
Abstract: Objective To assess the imported risk of COVID-19 in Guangdong province and its cities, and conduct early warning. Methods Data of reported COVID-19 cases and Baidu Migration Index of 21 cities in Guangdong province and other provinces of China as of February 25, 2020 were collected. The imported risk index of each city in Guangdong province were calculated, and then correlation analysis was performed between reported cases and the imported risk index to identify lag time. Finally, we classified the early warming levels of epidemic by imported risk index. Results A total of 1 347 confirmed cases were reported in Guangdong province, and 90.0% of the cases were clustered in the Pearl River Delta region. The average daily imported risk index of Guangdong was 44.03. Among the imported risk sources of each city, the highest risk of almost all cities came from Hubei province, except for Zhanjiang from Hainan province. In addition, the neighboring provinces of Guangdong province also had a greater impact. The correlation between the imported risk index with a lag of 4 days and the daily reported cases was the strongest (correlation coefficient: 0.73). The early warning base on cumulative 4-day risk of each city showed that Dongguan, Shenzhen, Zhongshan, Guangzhou, Foshan and Huizhou have high imported risks in the next 4 days, with imported risk indexes of 38.85, 21.59, 11.67, 11.25, 6.19 and 5.92, and the highest risk still comes from Hubei province. Conclusions Cities with a large number of migrants in Guangdong province have a higher risk of import. Hubei province and neighboring provinces in Guangdong province are the main source of the imported risk. Each city must strengthen the health management of migrants in high-risk provinces and reduce the imported risk of Guangdong province.