APC model analysis of lung cancer death trend in residents of Macheng City, Hubei Province, 1984-2018
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2020.01.012
- VernacularTitle:1984-2018年湖北省麻城市居民肺癌死亡趋势APC模型分析
- Author:
Zijuan YANG
1
;
Xibao HUANG
2
;
Lan ZHANG
2
;
Gongde PENG
3
;
Weihong XIANG
3
;
Songbo HU
1
;
Chunhui LI
1
;
Jinhong CAO
1
Author Information
1. School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China
2. Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan 430079, China
3. Macheng Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Huanggang, Hubei 438300, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Lung cancer;
Mortality;
APC model
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2020;31(1):53-56
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To study the trends of lung cancer mortality among adult residents in Macheng City, Hubei Province from 1984 to 2018． Methods Mortality data was extracted from Macheng City disease surveillance points (DSPs) system and China Demographic Yearbook. The age-period-cohort (APC) model and Intrinsic Estimator algorithm were used to estimate the age effect, period effect and cohort effect of lung cancer mortality. Results The age effect coefficient of lung cancer mortality increased with age from 20 to 74 years old. The mortality risk of the 70-74 group was 42.62 times that of the 20-24 group. The period effect coefficient of lung cancer mortality also continued to rise with time. The cohort effect coefficient was parabolic, and residents born in 1939-1943 had the highest coefficient (1.298 4). Conclusion The risk of lung cancer death of adult residents in Macheng City significantly increased with the year and the rapid development of socio-economics.
