Effect of daily average temperature on hand-foot-mouth disease incidence among children under 5 years old in Jingzhou
10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2019.12.028
- VernacularTitle:气温对荆州市5岁以下儿童手足口病发病的影响
- Author:
LIU Tian, YAO Menglei, HUANG Jigui, WU Yang, CHEN Qi, TONG Yeqing
1
Author Information
1. Department for Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Jingzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jingzhou(434000), Hubei Province, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Child,preschool;
Hand,food and mouth disease;
Temperature
- From:
Chinese Journal of School Health
2019;40(12):1865-1869
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To evaluate the effect of daily temperature on hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in children under 5 years old in Jingzhou city.
Methods:HFMD incidence data and meteorological data in Jingzhou city were obtained during 2010 and 2017. Distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was utilized to investigate the impact of daily temperature on HFMD incidence among children under 5 years old adjusting for potential confounders of other meteorological factors, secular trend, weekdays and holidays.
Results:A total of 47 525 cases were reported during 2010 to 2017, of which the ratio of male to female was 1.52. Children under 1 year old, 1-<3 years old, 3-5 years old accounted for 9.72%, 62.10%, and 28.18% of the total cases, respectively. Children cared at home and children care in kindergarten accounted for 73.29% and 26.71% of the total cases, respectively. The relationship between the temperature and the daily cases of HFMD in children under five years old was a ‘M’ pattern. Compared with a reference temperature (the 50 th percentile of average temperature during the study period, P 50), the maximum value of effect at 8.21 ℃ and 25.81 ℃ were 1.53(95%CI=1.33-1.76) and 1.47(95%CI=1.31-1.65). Higher temperatures (such as 25.81 ℃ in this paper) showed a long lag effect on the HFMD incidence compared with lower temperatures (such as 8.21 ℃). Subgroup analyses indicated that children aged 3-5 years (children who attended daycare) were more vulnerable to the effects of temperature changes on HFMD than those under 1 year old and 1-<3-year-old (cared at home).
Conclusion:The temperature has a significant impact on the HFMD incidence among children under five years old in Jingzhou. Daycare centers is the key place for prevention and control of HFMD.
