- VernacularTitle: 中国新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情再生系数评估
- Author:
Ying WANG
1
;
Xinyi YOU
1
;
Yijing WANG
1
,
2
;
Liping PENG
1
;
Zhicheng DU
1
;
Stuart GILMOUR
3
;
Daisuke YONEOKA
3
;
Jing GU
1
,
4
;
Chun HAO
1
,
4
;
Yuantao HAO
1
,
4
;
Jinghua LI
1
,
4
Author Information
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords: COVID-19; Basic reproduction number; Transmission rate
- From:Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2020;41(4):476-479
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:The number of confirmed and suspected cases of the COVID-19 in Hubei province is still increasing. However, the estimations of the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 varied greatly across studies. The objectives of this study are 1) to estimate the basic reproduction number (
R0 ) of COVID-19 reflecting the infectiousness of the virus and 2) to assess the effectiveness of a range of controlling intervention.
Method:The reported number of daily confirmed cases from January 17 to February 8, 2020 in Hubei province were collected and used for model fit. Four methods, the exponential growth (EG), maximum likelihood estimation (ML), sequential Bayesian method (SB) and time dependent reproduction numbers (TD), were applied to estimate theR0 .
Result:Among the four methods, the EG method fitted the data best. The estimatedR0 was 3.49 (95%CI : 3.42-3.58) by using EG method. TheR0 was estimated to be 2.95 (95%CI : 2.86-3.03) after taking control measures.
Conclusion:In the early stage of the epidemic, it is appropriate to estimateR0 using the EG method. Meanwhile, timely and effective control measures were warranted to further reduce the spread of COVID-19.