Dynamic basic reproduction number based evaluation for current prevention and control of COVID-19 outbreak in China
10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200209-00080
- VernacularTitle: 基于动态基本再生数的新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情防控现状评估
- Author:
Lihong HUANG
1
;
Sipeng SHEN
2
;
Ping YU
3
;
Yongyue WEI
2
Author Information
1. Department of Biostatistics, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
2. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China
3. Jingan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200072, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Coronavirus disease;
Dynamic bosic reproduction number;
Statistical prediction
- From:Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2020;41(4):466-469
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To evaluate the current status of the prevention and control of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in China, establish a predictive model to evaluate the effects of the current prevention and control strategies, and provide scientific information for decision- making departments.
Methods:Based on the epidemic data of COVID-19 openly accessed from national health authorities, we estimated the dynamic basic reproduction number R0(t) to evaluate the effects of the current COVID-19 prevention and control strategies in all the provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) as well as in Wuhan and the changes in infectivity of COVID-19 over time.
Results:For the stability of the results, 24 provinces (municipality) with more than 100 confirmed COVID-19 cases were included in the analysis. At the beginning of the outbreak, the R0(t) showed unstable trend with big variances. As the strengthening of the prevention and control strategies, R0(t) began to show a downward trend in late January, and became stable in February. By the time of data analysis, 18 provinces (municipality) (75%) had the R0(t)s less than 1. The results could be used for the decision making to free population floating conditionally.
Conclusions:Dynamic R0(t) is useful in the evaluation of the change in infectivity of COVID-19, the prevention and control strategies for the COVID-19 outbreak have shown preliminary effects, if continues, it is expected to control the COVID-19 outbreak in China in near future.
