Study on assessing early epidemiological parameters of coronavirus disease epidemic in China
10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200205-00069
- VernacularTitle: 新型冠状病毒肺炎的早期传染病流行病学参数估计研究
- Author:
Qianqian SONG
1
;
Han ZHAO
1
;
Liqun FANG
2
;
Wei LIU
2
;
Chuang ZHENG
1
;
Yong ZHANG
1
Author Information
1. School of Mathematical Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2. Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Academy of Military Medical Sciences, Beijing 100071, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Novel coronavirus;
Incubation period;
Generation interval;
Basic reproduction number
- From:Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2020;41(4):461-465
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To study the early dynamics of the epidemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in China from 15 to 31 January, 2020, and estimate the corresponding epidemiological parameters (incubation period, generation interval and basic reproduction number) of the epidemic.
Methods:By means of Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal distributions methods, we estimated the probability distribution of the incubation period and generation interval data obtained from the reported COVID-19 cases. Moreover, the AIC criterion was used to determine the optimal distribution. Considering the epidemic is ongoing, the exponential growth model was used to fit the incidence data of COVID-19 from 10 to 31 January, 2020, and exponential growth method, maximum likelihood method and SEIR model were used to estimate the basic reproduction number.
Results:Early COVID-19 cases kept an increase in exponential growth manner before 26 January, 2020, then the increase trend became slower. The average incubation period was 5.01 (95%CI: 4.31-5.69) days; the average generation interval was 6.03 (95%CI: 5.20-6.91) days. The basic reproduction number was estimated to be 3.74 (95%CI: 3.63-3.87), 3.16 (95%CI: 2.90-3.43), and 3.91 (95%CI: 3.71-4.11) by three methods, respectively.
Conclusions:The Gamma distribution fits both the generation interval and incubation period best, and the mean value of generation interval is 1.02 day longer than that of incubation period. The relatively high basic reproduction number indicates that the epidemic is still serious; Based on our analysis, the turning point of the epidemic would be seen on 26 January, the growth rate would be lower afterwards.
