The definition of heat-wave based on mortality risk assessment in different regions of China

Qiaoxuan Lin; Lijun Wang; Ziqiang Lin; Peng Yin; Zhengjing Huang; Tao Liu; Jianpeng Xiao; Xing LI; Weilin Zeng; Shao Lin; Maigeng Zhou; Wenjun MA

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The definition of heat-wave based on mortality risk assessment in different regions of China

VernacularTitle: 中国不同区域基于死亡风险评估的热浪定义研究
Author: Qiaoxuan LIN ^{1
,

2} ; Lijun WANG ³ ; Ziqiang LIN ⁴ ; Peng YIN ³ ; Zhengjing HUANG ³ ; Tao LIU ¹ ; Jianpeng XIAO ¹ ; Xing LI ¹ ; Weilin ZENG ¹ ; Shao LIN ⁴ ; Maigeng ZHOU ³ ; Wenjun MA ¹
Author Information

1. Department of Environment and Health, Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou 511430, China
2. Lin Qiaoxuan is working on the Department of Health Information Resources, Guangzhou Center of Health Information, Guangzhou 510062, China
3. National Center for Chronic and Non Communicable Diseases Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
4. Department of Environmental Health Science, School of Public Health, State University of New York at Albany, New York 12222, America
Publication Type:Journal Article
Keywords: Temperature; Mortality; Heat wave; Ecological study
From: Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2019;53(1):97-102
CountryChina
Language:Chinese
Abstract: Objective:To identify the definition of heat wave based on mortality risk assessment in different regions of China.
Methods:Daily mortality (from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention) and meteorological data (from National Meteorological Information Center in China) from 66 counties with a population of over 200 000 were collected from 2006-2011. With the consideration of climate type and administrative division, China was classified as seven regions. Firstly, distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to estimate community-specific effects of temperature on non-accidental mortality. Secondly, a multivariate meta-analysis was applied to pool the estimates of community-specific effects to explore the region-specific temperature threshold and the duration for definition of heat wave.
Results:We defined regional heat wave of Northeast, North, Northwest, East, Central and Southwest China as being two or more consecutive days with daily mean temperature higher than or equal to the P₆₄, P₇₁, P₈₅, P₆₇, P₇₅ and P₇₇ of warm season (May to October) temperature, respectively, while the thresholds of temperature were 21.6, 23.7, 24.3, 25.7, 28.0 and 25.3 ℃. The heat wave in South China was defined as five or more consecutive days with daily mean temperature higher than or equal to the P₉₃ (30.4 ℃) of warm season (May to October) temperature.
Conclusion:The region-specific definition of heat wave developed in our study may provide local government with the guidance of establishment and implementation of early heat-health response systems to address the negative health outcomes due to heat wave.