Research on the relationship between the daily mean temperature and the daily cases of varicella during 2008-2016 in Lanzhou, China
10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2018.08.013
- VernacularTitle: 2008—2016年兰州市日均气温与水痘发病的关联性研究
- Author:
Jinyu WANG
1
;
Sheng LI
;
Hanping MA
;
Jiyuan DONG
;
Yuhong WANG
;
Wei ZHANG
;
Xiaoyu ZHANG
;
Pu LI
;
Shouyu LI
Author Information
1. Institute of Human Anatomy and Histology and Embryology, School of Basic Medicine, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Temperature;
Chickenpox;
Distributed lag nonlinear model;
Lag effects
- From:
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
2018;52(8):842-848
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To explore the effects of temperature on the daily cases of varicella.
Methods:The data of daily cases of varicella was collected during 2008 to 2016 in Lanzhou from National Notifiable Disease Report System, and the meteorological data at the same period was integrated from Gansu Meteorological Administration. Distributed lag nonlinear model was fitted to reveal the relationship between the daily mean temperature and the daily cases of varicella and susceptible population. The minimum morbidity temperature was defined as the reference for the estimation of RRs in different temperature level (-5.2 ℃, 1.7 ℃, 20.1 ℃ and 25.4 ℃).
Results:The total of 21 254 cases were reported from 2008 to 2016, of which the ratio of male to female was 1.28 (11 951/9 303) and people aged 6-14 years accounted for 52.87%. The relationship between the daily mean temperature and the daily cases of varicella was M type. For all subjects, the accumulative effects of temperature had statistical significance from lag 0-14 d when temperatures was at -5.2 ℃, 1.7 ℃ and 20.1 ℃,while the RRs (95%CI) were 1.87 (1.64-2.12) , 1.33 (1.10-1.62) ,1.60 (1.38-1.86) ,while from lag 0-7 d when temperatures was at 25.4 ℃,and the RR (95%CI) was 2.51 (1.93-3.27) . The RR value of accumulative effects was 6.23(95%CI: 4.38-8.86) on lag 7 d when temperatures was at -5.2 ℃, which was the highest value at different temperature during lag days. The cumulative effects trends of different temperatures were similar for different gender population or different age subjects. However, the cumulative effects of was highest for children aged 6-14 years among all subjects, and the value of RR was 6.12 (95%CI:3.71-10.10) on lag 5d when temperatures was at -5.2 ℃.
Conclusion:We conclude that the increasing risk of varicella is associative with low and high temperature in Lanzhou. The effects of low temperature are stronger than those of high temperature. The children aged 6-14 years belong to the high-risk population of varicella.
