Establishment and analysis of predictive models of postoperative complications in elderly patients undergoing hip arthroplasty
10.3760/cma.j.issn.1672-7088.2019.20.006
- VernacularTitle: 老年患者髋关节置换术后并发症预测模型的建立与分析
- Author:
Mengshi WANG
1
Author Information
1. Department of Orthopedic, People′s Hospital of Wanning, Hainan 571500, China
- Publication Type:Clinical Trail
- Keywords:
Aged;
Arthroplasty, replacement, hip;
Postoperative complications;
Risk factor;
Nomogram model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Practical Nursing
2019;35(20):1545-1550
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To establish a preoperative evaluation model and evaluate the accuracy of postoperative complications by analyzing the risk factors of postoperative complications in hip arthroplasty in elderly patients, and to provide a basis for grading nursing.
Methods:From January 2012 to August 2018, 148 patients with elderly patients undergoing hip arthroplasty admitted to People′s hospital of Wanning were included in the study. Among them, 23 patients with postoperative complications were included as complications and 125 patients without complications served as a control group. Univariate analysis of the factors associated with complications, statistically significant indicators were included in the multivariate logistic regression model, and the risk factors for postoperative complications in hip arthroplasty were analyzed. Based on the results of the regression analysis, a preoperative evaluation model was established. The ROC curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to evaluate the model prediction performance.
Results:Multivariate analysis showed age (OR=1.239, 95%CI: 1.002-1.531, P=0.048), Glu (OR=2.961, 95%CI: 1.055-8.311, P=0.039), surgical size (OR=4.997, 95%CI: 1.269-19.686, P=0.021) were risk factors for postoperative complications, Albumin (OR=0.696, 95%CI: 0.535-0.904, P=0.007) was a protective factor for postoperative complications (P<0.05). The ROC curve showed a nomogram model predicting the area under the complication curve (AUC) of 0.988 (95%CI:0.975-1.000), with a specificity of 96.77% and a sensitivity of 99.82%.
Conclusion:A nomogram model based on age, Glu, albumin, surgery size to predict the risk of complications after hip arthroplasty in elderly patients has a good specificity and sensitivity, high clinical value.
