Preoperative risk factor analysis and prediction model establishment of microvascular invasion in small hepatocellular carcinoma
10.3670.cma.j.issn.1007-631X.2019.11.003
- VernacularTitle: 小肝癌合并微血管侵犯的术前危险因素分析及预测模型构建
- Author:
Hang GAO
1
;
Shangeng WENG
1
;
Xiang ZHANG
1
;
Zheng SHI
1
Author Information
1. Department of Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou350004, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Carcinoma, hepatocellular;
Microvessels;
Prediction model
- From:
Chinese Journal of General Surgery
2019;34(11):921-924
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze relevant preoperative risk factors for microvascular invasion (MVI) in patients with small hepatocellular carcinoma and establish a prediction model.
Methods:A retrospective analysis of 157 cases of singlehepatocellular carcinoma with tumor diameter ≤5 cm undergoing hepatectomy at the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University from Dec 2012 to Mar 2019 was conducted. There were 59 cases with MVI and 98 cases without MVI.According to different time periods, the enrolled cases were divided into modeling group (n=137) and validation group (n=20). The independent risk factors of small hepatocellular carcinoma with MVI were discussed and a prediction model was established by using preoperative specific imaging characteristics and clinical data.
Results:Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that AFP, imaging tumor maximum diameter and tumor margin status were independent risk factors for small hepatocellular carcinoma complicated by microvascular invasion. Preoperative prediction model was established according to the above factors : P=1/1+ [e^(2.751-1.090X1-1.778X2-1.147X3)]. (X1-X3 represent the assignment of AFP, maximum tumor diameter and tumor margin state, respectively). The area under curve (AUC) and the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) of the model is 0.786.
Conclusion:Based on three preoperative clinical data, including AFP, tumor maximum diameter and tumor margin, the preoperative prediction model of small hepatocellular carcinoma complicated with MVI was successfully established with clinical value.
