Construction of Nomogram prediction model for prognosis of gastric neuroendocrine neoplasms
10.3872/j.issn.1007-385x.2019.05.014
- VernacularTitle:胃神经内分泌瘤患者预后Nomogram预测模型的构建
- Author:
ZUO Qianqian
1
,
2
;
ZHANG Yanbing
3
;
MA Jiequn
3
;
LIAO Zijun
3
;
LI Qian
1
,
2
;
CHEN Yong
1
,
2
Author Information
1. Xi&rsquo
2. an Medical University
3. Department of First Internal Medicine
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
gastric neuroendocrine neoplasms(G-GENs);
Nomogram;
predictive model;
calibration curve
- From:
Chinese Journal of Cancer Biotherapy
2019;26(5):569-576
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objection: To analyze the factors affecting the prognosis of patients with gastric neuroendocrine neoplasms (G-NENs) by using the surveillance of National Cancer Institute (NCI) of America, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, and to construct a prognostic Nomogram model for individualized prediction of prognosis in patients with G-NENs. Methods: The clinical data of 2720 G-NENs patients with complete follow-up data from 2010 to 2015 in the SEER database were collected. The prognostic Nomogram model was constructed based on independent risk factors determined by survival analysis. The consistency index (C-index) and calibration curve were used to evaluate its accuracy.Area under the curve (AUC) was used to compare the evaluation value between the Nomogram and the 7th edition of AJCC TNM staging. Results: The 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates of 2,720 patients with G-NENs were 88.14%, 79.09%, and 71.86%, respectively. Multivariate COX regression analysis showed that gender, age, marital status, other associated tumors, histological type, tumor grade, T stage, M stage, and surgery were independent risk factors affecting survival time of GNENs patients. The C-index of newly constructed Nomogram prediction model was 0.816, which was significantly higher than 0.702 of the 7thAJCC TNM staging (P<0.001), and the 1-, 3- and 5-year calibration curves showed a good agreement between predicted survival and actual survival. The AUC for 1-, 3- and 5-year survival by Nomogram prognostic model was 0.800, 0.811, and 0.820, which was higher than 0.650, 0.688 and 0.698 of the 7th AJCC TNM staging, and the differences were statistically significant (Z= 6.600, 8.085, 9.632, all P<0.0001). Conclusion: The Nomogram prediction model drawn in this study has a high prognostic value and can individually predict the survival rate of G-NENs patients, which is helpful for clinical treatment decision-making and clinical research options.
- Full text:20190514.pdf
