Evaluation of the application of moving epidemic method on making influenza epidemic thresholds in the 7 climate zones in China
10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2019.10.010
- VernacularTitle: 移动流行区间法在中国7个气候区流感流行阈值制定中的应用效果评价
- Author:
Yayun TAN
1
;
Lingjia ZENG
2
;
Ying QIN
2
;
Jiandong ZHENG
2
;
Zhongjie LI
2
;
Dayan WANG
3
;
Tao CHEN
3
;
Luzhao FENG
2
;
Zhibin PENG
2
Author Information
1. Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Suzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Suzhou 215000, China
2. Division of Infectious Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
3. National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention/Chinese National Influenza Center/WHO Collaborating Center for Reference and Research on Influenza, Beijing 102206, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Influenza, human;
Epidemics;
Threshold limit values;
Moving epidemic method
- From:
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
2019;53(10):1007-1011
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:We planned to evaluate the effectiveness of moving epidemic method (MEM) in calculating influenza epidemic threshold of 7 climatic zones in China mainland.
Methods:The positive rate of influenza virus was obtained from the National Influenza Surveillance Network System from 2010/2011 to 2017/2018. We divided the 31 provinces into 7 climatic zones according to previous literatures and applied MEM to calculate the influenza epidemic threshold of 2018/2019 influenza season for these climatic zones. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were calculated to evaluate the effectiveness of MEM.
Results:Pre-epidemic threshold (the positive rate of influenza virus) varied from 9.66% (temperate zone) to 16.36% (subtropical zone) for 2018/2019 influenza season. The gap between pre-epidemic and post-epidemic thresholds was less than 5% except for plateau zone. The sensitivity was 86.16% (95CI:66.81%-98.23%), the specificity was 94.92% (95CI: 91.13%-98.41%), the positive predictive value was 89.87% (95%CI: 84.39%-94.38%), the negative predictive value was 92.96% (95%CI: 84.46%-99.17%).
Conclusion:Overall, moving epidemic Method performs well in calculating influenza epidemic threshold in China, much better than the previous study.
