Prevention effectiveness of the

Jianhua Liu; Weibin Cheng; Huifang XU; Jing GU; Chun Hao; Weiyun HE; Keru Wang; Fei Zhong; Dannuo Wei; Liping Peng; Yuantao Hao; Jinghua LI

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Prevention effectiveness of the "Internet Plus-based AIDS Comprehensive Prevention Service System" among MSM in Guangzhou: a dynamic model of infectious disease

VernacularTitle: 应用传染病动力学模型评估广州市"互联网+艾滋病综合预防服务体系"防治效果
Author: Jianhua LIU ¹ ; Weibin CHENG ² ; Huifang XU ² ; Jing GU ^{1
,

3} ; Chun HAO ^{1
,

3} ; Weiyun HE ² ; Keru WANG ¹ ; Fei ZHONG ² ; Dannuo WEI ¹ ; Liping PENG ¹ ; Yuantao HAO ^{1
,

3} ; Jinghua LI ^{1
,

3}
Author Information

1. School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
2. Department of AIDS Control and Prevention, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China
3. Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
Publication Type:Journal Article
Keywords: HIV/AIDS; Dynamic model; Men who have sex with men; Internet Plus
From:Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2019;40(10):1227-1233
CountryChina
Language:Chinese
Abstract: Objective:To evaluate the effect of the "Interner Plus-based AIDS Comprehensive Prevention Service System" among MSM in Guangzhou, during 2010-2017, using a dynamic compartmental model.
Methods:A dynamic compartmental model was developed to describe the HIV situation among MSM in Guangzhou. This model was parameterized on data from published literature or surveillance programs from the Guangzhou CDC. The Matlab 7.0 software was used for coding and analysis on collected data. HIV prevalence was analyzed among MSM under the status quo data and estimated the impact by the "Internet Plus" AIDS prevention services project.
Results:HIV prevalence would have increased to 22.75% in 2017, and the total number of new HIV infections would have been 11 038, from 2010 to 2017, using the data status quo. Under the Guangzhou "Internet Plus" AIDS prevention services project, the prevalence of HIV among MSM from 2010 to 2017 was estimated to be 8.44%, 9.68%, 10.65%, 11.34%, 11.73%, 11.83%, 11.71% and 11.43% in Guangzhou, which were similar to the surveillance data. The total number of new infections in the past 8 years under the "Internet Plus" scenario was estimated to be 4 009. The "Internet Plus" program would have prevented 7 029 (63.68%) new infections during 2010-2017 as compared to the number, status quo.
Conclusions:The fitting result of dynamic compartmental model seemed more reasonable, which was applicable to predict HIV epidemic among MSM in Guangzhou, suggesting that the increase of HIV prevalence had been curbed since the "Internet Plus" project which was launched in 2010, and the "Interner Plus-based AIDS Comprehensive Prevention Service System" had achieved the purpose as planned, epidemiologically.