A time series analysis on under 5 mortality rate in Zhejiang Province

VernacularTitle:浙江省5岁以下儿童死亡率的时间序列分析
Author: Na LV ¹ ; Dong-Mei JIN ; Shao-Shuai QI ; Qian-Qian LIANG ; Ling-Zi DAI ; Tian WU ; Wen-Jie FAN ; Yu-Ying XU ; Wei-Fang ZHANG ; Xiu-Yang LI ; Huai-Zhuang YE
Author Information

1. 浙江大学医学院公共卫生系
Keywords: Time series analysis; ARIMA (p,q,d)model; Under 5 mortality rate; Forecast
From: Journal of Preventive Medicine 2016;(1):13-16
CountryChina
Language:Chinese
Abstract: Objective To study the temporal distribution regular pattern of under 5 mortality rate(U5MR)from 1 998 to 201 4 in Zhejiang Province,and to predict the under 5 mortality rate in 201 5.Methods A time series ARIMA (p,d,q) forecasting model for U5MR was conducted using IBM SPSS Statistics 20.0 statistical analysis software.Results The UMAR showed downward trend.The ARIMA(2,1 ,2)model of U5MR from 1 998 to 201 4 in Zhejiang Province is yt =-0.696 +0.636yt -1 +0.024yt -2 +0.340yt -3 +αt -0.003αt -1 +0.997αt -2 ,and the model fitting was good.Each of the actual mortality was consistent with the trend of model prediction,and was within the 95% confidence interval.The predicted value of U5MR was 4.08‰ (95% CI:1 .52‰ -6.64‰)in 201 5.Conclusion Time series analysis is an effective way to analyze the temporal distribution regular pattern of U5MR,which could be used for short -term prediction.