The application of X -1 2 -ARIMA model in analysis on incidence trend of typhoid
- VernacularTitle:X －12－ARIMA 方法在伤寒发病趋势分析中的应用
- Author:
Hao-Cheng WU
1
;
Jun-Fen LIN
;
Chen WU
;
Bei-Bei ZENG
;
Qing-Bao LU
Author Information
1. 浙江省疾病预防控制中心
- Keywords:
X -1 2 -ARIMA model;
Typhoid;
Incidence trend;
Seasonal adjustment
- From:
Journal of Preventive Medicine
2015;(8):761-763,767
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To study the function of X -1 2 -ARIMA model in analysis on incidence trend of typhoid. Methods Secular trend,seasonal periodicity and random fluctuations of the monthly morbidity data in Zhejiang province from 2005 to 201 3 were analyzed by X -1 2 -ARIMA model.Results The seasonal fluctuation showed a narrowing trend year by year during 2005 to 201 3.After September,2007,the incidence of typhoid showed a downward trend.After 2008,the annual peak of incidence changed from August to July.The irregular factor may well represent the outbreak. Conclusion The X -1 2 -ARIMA model showed clear secular trend and seasonal periodicity,and the random fluctuation was of great value.
