The application of ARIMA model in predicting incidence trend of hand -foot -mouth disease

VernacularTitle:手足口病发病趋势的 ARIMA 模型预测
Author: Ying YAO ¹ ; Yi SHEN
Author Information

1. 浙江大学公共卫生学院
Keywords: ARIMA model; Hand -foot -mouth disease; Forecast
From: Journal of Preventive Medicine 2015;(2):147-149
CountryChina
Language:Chinese
Abstract: Objective To predict the incidence trend of hand -foot -mouth disease (HFMD)by ARIMA model,and to provide the evidence for prevention and control of this disease.Methods The ARIMA model was established based on monthly incidence rates of HFMD in Shangcheng District,Hangzhou City,from April 2008 to December 2013.Results Through the test of parameters and goodness as well as white -noise residuals,we finalized the model ARIMA(1,0,0)(0, 1,0)12 ,of which BIC(Bayeian Information Criterion)=3.094,Ljung -Box =10.871,P =0.863.The average relative error between the predictive value and the actual value of the monthly incidence rate for HFMD in 2013 was 26.86%.The predicted incidence rate was 74.50 /100 000 in 2014.Conclusion The model could predict the incidence trend of hand -foot -mouth disease,it plays a positive role in guiding for early warning and forecast.