Prediction of maternal and child health care indicators in China based on GM(1,1) model
10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.08.018
- Author:
Li-ling ZHU
1
;
Fan-jun MENG
;
Di YANG
Author Information
1. Department of Preventive Medicine, Academy of Public Health of Jiamusi University, Jiamusi 154007, China
- Publication Type:Research Article
- Keywords:
GM(1,1) model;
Maternal and child health care;
Predictive analysis
- From:
Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention
2019;23(8):977-980,1007
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To study the predictive effect of model ［GM(1,1)］ in China’s maternal and child health indicators, and to predict the future maternal and child health indicators in a short-term, and provide a scientific basis for the gradual improvement of maternal and child health care services in China. Methods The maternal mortality rate (MMR), neonatal mortality rate (NMR), infant mortality rate (IMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR) were collected from 2008 to 2017 in China. Models were established and MATLAB 2018b software was used for predictive analysis. Results The prediction models of maternal mortality rate, neonatal mortality rate, infant mortality rate and under-five mortality rate were as follows: x^(k+1)=-476.08e-0.09k+510.28(C1=0.165,P1=1.000)，x^(k+1)=-108.43e-0.09k+118.63(C2=0.043,P2=1.000)，x^(k+1)=-160.60e-0.09k+175.50(C3=0.085,P3=1.000),x^(k+1)=-224.37e-0.08k+242.87(C4=0.124,P4= 1.000)，the average relative errors were as follows: 3.46%,0.67%,1.75% and 2.36%。 Conclusions The GM (1,1) is suitable for the prediction of maternal and child health indicators in China, and the fitting accuracy is high. It is predicted that the indicators will continue to decline year by year in the next three years, and relevant departments should strengthen the management work in a targeted manner.
