The Singapore Heart Failure Risk Score: Prediction of Survival in Southeast Asian Patients.
- Author:
Jonathan YAP
1
;
Shaw Yang CHIA
;
Fang Yi LIM
;
John C ALLEN
;
Louis TEO
;
David SIM
;
Yun Yun GO
;
Fazlur Rehman JAUFEERALLY
;
Matthew SEOW
;
Bernard KWOK
;
Reginald LIEW
;
Carolyn Sp LAM
;
Chi Keong CHING
Author Information
1. Department of Cardiology, National Heart Centre, Singapore.
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- From:Annals of the Academy of Medicine, Singapore
2019;48(3):86-94
- CountrySingapore
- Language:English
-
Abstract:
INTRODUCTION:Numerous heart failure risk scores have been developed but there is none for Asians. We aimed to develop a risk calculator, the Singapore Heart Failure Risk Score, to predict 1- and 2-year survival in Southeast Asian patients hospitalised for heart failure.
MATERIALS AND METHODS:Consecutive patients admitted for heart failure were identified from the Singapore Cardiac Databank Heart Failure registry. The follow-up was 2 to 4 years and mortality was obtained from national registries.
RESULTS:The derivation (2008-2009) and 2 validation cohorts (2008-2009, 2013) included 1392, 729 and 804 patients, respectively. Ten variables were ultimately included in the risk model: age, prior myocardial infarction, prior stroke, atrial fibrillation, peripheral vascular disease, systolic blood pressure, QRS duration, ejection fraction and creatinine and sodium levels. In the derivation cohort, predicted 1- and 2-year survival was 79.1% and 68.1% compared to actual 1- and 2-year survival of 78.2% and 67.9%. There was good agreement between the predicted and observed mortality rates (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic = 14.36, = 0.073). C-statistics for 2-year mortality in the derivation and validation cohorts were 0.73 (95% CI, 0.70-0.75) and 0.68 (95% CI, 0.64-0.72), respectively.
CONCLUSION:We provided a risk score based on readily available clinical characteristics to predict 1- and 2-year survival in Southeast Asian patients hospitalised for heart failure via a simple online risk calculator, the Singapore Heart Failure Risk Score.
