An updated hip fracture projection in Asia: The Asian Federation of Osteoporosis Societies study
10.1016/j.afos.2018.03.003
- Author:
Ching Lung CHEUNG
1
;
Seng Bin ANG
;
Manoj CHADHA
;
Eddie Siu-Lun CHOW
;
Yoon Sok CHUNG
;
Fen Lee HEW
;
Unnop JAISAMRARN
;
Hou NG
;
Yasuhiro TAKEUCHI
;
Chih Hsing WU
;
Weibo XIA
;
Julie YU
;
Saeko FUJIWARA
Author Information
1. Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacy, Centre for Genomic Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China.
- Publication Type:Original Article
- Keywords:
Hip fracture;
Asia;
Osteoporosis;
Incidence
- MeSH:
Asia;
Asian Continental Ancestry Group;
China;
Delivery of Health Care;
Demography;
Diagnosis;
Hip;
Humans;
Incidence;
India;
Osteoporosis;
Population Density;
Public Health
- From:Osteoporosis and Sarcopenia
2018;4(1):16-21
- CountryRepublic of Korea
- Language:English
-
Abstract:
OBJECTIVES: Hip fracture is a major public health problem. Earlier studies projected that the total number of hip fracture will increase dramatically by 2050, and most of the hip fracture will occur in Asia. To date, only a few studies provided the updated projection, and none of them focused on the hip fracture projection in Asia. Thus, it is essential to provide the most up to date prediction of hip fracture in Asia, and to evaluate the total direct medical cost of hip fracture in Asia. METHODS: We provide the updated projection of hip fracture in 9 Asian Federation of Osteoporosis Societies members using the most updated incidence rate and projected population size. RESULTS: We show that the number of hip fracture will increase from 1,124,060 in 2018 to 2,563,488 in 2050, a 2.28-fold increase. This increase is mainly due to the changes on the population demographics, especially in China and India, which have the largest population size. The direct cost of hip fracture will increase from 9.5 billion United State dollar (USD) in 2018 to 15 billion USD in 2050, resulting a 1.59-fold increase. A 2%–3% decrease in incidence rate of hip fracture annually is required to keep the total number of hip fracture constant over time. CONCLUSIONS: The results show that hip fracture remains a key public health issue in Asia, despite the available of better diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of fracture over the recent years. Healthcare policy in Asia should be aimed to reduce the burden of hip fracture.
