Application of Bernoulli Process Model fitting the effect of intervention measures on sexual transmission among HIV sero-discordant couples.
10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2018.06.012
- Author:
H L TANG
1
;
Y R MAO
;
Z Y WU
Author Information
1. Division of Integration and Evaluation, National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Bernoulli process model;
Couples;
HIV;
Sexual behavior;
Transmission
- MeSH:
Anti-Retroviral Agents/therapeutic use*;
China/epidemiology*;
Condoms;
Female;
HIV Infections/virology*;
HIV Seronegativity;
HIV Seropositivity/epidemiology*;
Humans;
Male;
Safe Sex;
Sexual Behavior/statistics & numerical data*;
Sexual Partners;
Spouses
- From:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2018;39(6):755-759
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objectives: To undersand the outcomes of major intervention measures on sexual transmission among HIV sero-discordant couples. Methods: Bernoulli Process Model was applied to model the major influencing factors of HIV transmission among HIV sero-discordant couples. The major influencing factors appeared as consistent condom use, antiretroviral therapy, frequency of sexual behavior. These parameters were from the HIV sero-discordant couples in 30 counties in 4 provinces (Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Yunnan Province, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and Henan provinces) from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2012. According to the main factors, modeling-intervention strategies and measures on reduction HIV transmission among serodiscordant couples were formed. Results: Data from the present proportion of consistent condom use (85%) modeling and the coverage of antiretroviral treatment (60%) showed that, the proportion of cumulative seroconversion among the spouses was 1.76%. Results from the sensitivity analysis on modeling the consistent condom use and the antiretroviral treatment showed that, when the coverage of antiretroviral treatment was as 90% and the proportion of consistent condom use increased from 50% to 90%, with 80.7% of the risk of spouse seroconversion could be reduced. Or, when the proportion of consistent condom use was as 90% and the coverage of antiretroviral treatment increased from 50% to 90%, with 64.5% of the risk of spouse seroconversion could be reduced. Conclusions: With measures as consistent condom use plus provision of timely antiretroviral therapy to HIV positive index spouses, the risk of sexual transmission among sero-discordant couples could be greatly reduced.
