Study on early warning threshold values for 7 common communicable diseases in Gansu province, 2016.
10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2018.03.020
- VernacularTitle:甘肃省2016年7种常见急性传染病预警阈值研究
- Author:
Y CHENG
1
;
X F LIU
;
L MENG
;
X T YANG
;
D P LIU
;
K F WEI
;
X J JIANG
;
H X LIU
;
Y H ZHENG
Author Information
1. Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou 730000, China.
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Communicable disease;
Cumulative sum;
Early-warning threshold;
Moving percentile method
- MeSH:
China;
Communicable Disease Control/methods*;
Communicable Diseases/epidemiology*;
Disease Notification;
Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control*;
Humans;
Models, Theoretical;
Population Surveillance/methods*
- From:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2018;39(3):352-356
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective: To optimize the warning threshold values of common communicable diseases in Gansu province, and improve the early warning effect. Method: An early warning model was set up for influenza, scarlet fever, other infectious diarrheal diseases, dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid, viral hepatitis type E and hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) respectively in Gansu by using the moving percentile method and cumulative sum method. By calculating the sensitivity, specificity, predictive value of positive test, predictive value of negative test, Youden' index and receiver-operating characteristic curve, the optimum early warning threshold values for communicable diseases in Gansu were selected. Results: The optimum early warning boundary values of influenza, scarlet fever, other infectious diarrheal diseases, dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid, and viral hepatitis type E were P(90), P(80), P(95), P(90), P(80) and P(90) respectively. The optimum early warning parameters of HFMD were k=1.2, H=5σ. Under the optimum early warning boundary values/parameters, the early warning sensitivities of influenza, scarlet fever, other infectious diarrheal diseases, dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid, viral hepatitis type E and HFMD were 86.67%, 100.00%, 91.67%, 100.00%, 100.00%, 100.00% and 100.00%, the specificities were 86.49%, 62.22%, 75.00%, 100.00%, 97.92%, 89.13% and 74.47%. The predictive values of positive test were 72.22%, 29.17%, 52.38%, 100.00%, 80.00%, 54.55% and 29.41%, and the predictive values of negative test were 94.12%, 100.00%, 96.77%, 100.00%, 100.00%, 100.00% and 100.00%, and the Youden' indexes were 0.73, 0.62, 0.67, 1.00, 0.98,0.89 and 0.74. Receiver-operating characteristic curve showed that the values/parameters of this warning boundary were the points closest to the upper left of the coordinate diagram. Conclusion: The early warning thresholds of influenza, other infectious diarrheal diseases, dysentery and hepatitis E in Gansu may be raised appropriately and the early warning parameters of HFMD need to be adjusted to improve the effectiveness of early warning.
