Study on influence of air temperature on daily chronic obstructive pulmonary disease mortality in Ningbo
10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2017.11.018
- VernacularTitle:宁波市气温对居民慢性阻塞性肺疾病每日死亡的影响
- Author:
Beibei LU
1
;
Shaohua GU
;
Aihong WANG
;
Ting GE
;
Yong WANG
;
Xiaohai LI
;
Guozhang XU
Author Information
1. 315010,宁波市疾病预防控制中心
- Keywords:
Temperature;
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease;
Daily mortality;
Distributional lag non-linear model;
Attributable risk
- From:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2017;38(11):1528-1532
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To study the influence of daily air temperature on daily chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality in residents in Ningbo. Methods A time-series analysis using distributional lag non-linear model (DLNM) was conducted to estimate the attributable numbers and fraction of average air temperature on the daily COPD mortality in Ningbo from 2011 to 2016, by controlling the long-term time trend, day of week, air pollutants and other weather variables. Results A reverse J-shape relationship was found between the average air temperature and COPD mortality, and the minimum-mortality temperature (MMT) was 25.5℃. The relative risks of extreme low and extreme high air temperature over lag 0-14 d were 2.767 (95%CI: 1.950-3.928) and 1.197 (95%CI:1.021-1.404). In total, 31.62%(95%CI:23.05%-38.89%) of COPD mortality (4963 cases, 95%CI: 3469-6027) was attributable to non-MMT exposure, More attributable deaths were due to low air temperature, with a fraction of 30.41%corresponding to 4772 deaths, compared with 1.22%and 192 deaths due to high air temperature. Low air temperature and high temperature were more likely to influence the mortality in females and those aged ≥65 years, but the influence was not significant in people aged <65 years. Conclusion Both high and low air temperature were associated with an increased risk of COPD mortality in residents in Ningbo, especially during cold season, related measures on disease prevention should be taken to protect vulnerable population to reduce the risk of COPD mortality.
