Influence of humidex on incidence of bacillary dysentery in Hefei: a time-series study
10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2017.11.017
- VernacularTitle:温湿指数对合肥市细菌性痢疾影响的时间序列研究
- Author:
Heng ZHANG
1
;
Kefu ZHAO
;
Ruixin HE
;
Desheng ZHAO
;
Mingyu XIE
;
Shusi WANG
;
Lijun BAI
;
Qiang CHENG
;
Yanwu ZHANG
;
Hong SU
Author Information
1. 安徽医科大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系重大自身免疫性疾病安徽省重点实验室
- Keywords:
Bacillary dysentery;
Humidex;
Distributed lag nonlinear model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2017;38(11):1523-1527
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To investigate the effect of humidex combined with mean temperature and relative humidity on the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Hefei. Methods Daily counts of bacillary dysentery cases and weather data in Hefei were collected from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2013. Then, the humidex was calculated from temperature and relative humidity. A Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag non-linear model was applied to analyze the relationship between humidex and the incidence of bacillary dysentery, after adjusting for long-term and seasonal trends, day of week and other weather confounders. Stratified analyses by gender, age and address were also conducted. Results The risk of bacillary dysentery increased with the rise of humidex. The adverse effect of high humidex (90 percentile of humidex) appeared in 2- days lag and it was the largest at 4-days lag (RR=1.063, 95%CI:1.037-1.090). Subgroup analyses indicated that all groups were affected by high humidex at lag 2-5 days. Conclusion High humidex could significantly increase the risk of bacillary dysentery, and the lagged effects were observed.
