A systematic review of international simulation models on the natural history of breast cancer:current understanding and challenges for Chinese-population-specific model development
10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2017.10.025
- VernacularTitle:乳腺癌自然史模型研究系统评价:现状及构建中国人群特异性模型面临的挑战
- Author:
Hengmin MA
1
,
2
;
Le WANG
;
Jufang SHI
;
Jianming YING
;
Juan ZHU
;
Lili CHEN
;
Xinpei YUE
;
Jiyong GONG
;
Xiao LI
;
Jialin WANG
;
Min DAI
Author Information
1. 100021 北京,国家癌症中心/中国医学科学院北京协和医学院肿瘤医院城市癌症早诊早治项目办公室
2. 250117 济南,山东大学附属山东省肿瘤医院公共卫生科
- Keywords:
Breast neoplasms;
Natural history;
Modelling;
Systematic review
- From:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2017;38(10):1419-1425
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To systematically review the worldwide simulation model studies on the natural history of breast cancer and to summarize related parameters.Methods A structured literature search was conducted in PubMed and the Cochrane Library to identify articles during 1980-2015.Articles were screened independently by two researchers.Health states in the natural history and relevant parameters were extracted.Results A total of 36 studies were included for analysis,within the earliest one was published in 1990.Most studies were from Europe and America countries,and 2 studies from China.Markov model was mostly applied to evaluating breast cancer screening programs (n=32).Reported health status included “healthy” (n=36),ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS,n=17),invasive breast cancer (IBC,n=36),and death (n=27).There were two definite classifications for IBC,tumor size (n=9) and TNM staging (n=9,3 studies reported transition rates).The median (range) of annual transition rates from DCIS to stage-I IBC,I to Ⅱ,Ⅱ to Ⅲ,Ⅲ to Ⅳ were 0.279 (0.259-0.299),0.150 (0.069-0.430),0.100 (0.060-0.128) and 0.210 (0.010-0.625),respectively.A total of 15 studies reported the mean duration from predinical to clinical stage for IBC was 1.95-4.70 years,which gradually increased with age,and 7 studies reported that for DCIS.Conclusions Despite closer attention was paid to breast cancer natural history models,in recent years atypical hyperplasia has been neglected.Data on the mean duration of DCIS requires reasonable conversion.Various classifications for IBC exist whereas transition rates are limited.Current findings would be valuable references but challenging for the Chinese-population specific natural history model,development.
