Application of State Space model in the evaluation of the prevention and control for mumps

VernacularTitle:状态空间模型在流行性腮腺炎防控评价中的应用
Author: Cheng LUO ¹ ; Runzi LI ; Qinqin XU ; Ping XIONG ; Yanxun LIU ; Fuzhong XUE ; Qing XU ; Xiujun LI
Author Information

1. 山东大学公共卫生学院生物统计系
Keywords: Space-state model; Basic reproduction number; Mumps
From: Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2017;38(9):1218-1221
CountryChina
Language:Chinese
Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in 2012 and 2014,and to explore the preventive effect of the second dose of mumps-containing vaccine (MuCV) in mumps in Shandong province.Methods On the basis of certain model assumptions,a Space State model was formulated.Iterated Filter was applied to the epidemic model to estimate the parameters.Results The basic reproduction number (R0) for children in schools was 4.49 (95％ CI:4.30-4.67)and 2.50 (95％CI:2.38-2.61) respectively for the year of 2012 and 2014.Conclusions Space State model seems suitable for mumps prevalence description.The policy of 2-dose MuCV can effectively reduce the number of total patients.Children in schools are the key to reduce the mumps.