Research of prevalence of schistosomiasis in Hunan province, 1984-2015

VernacularTitle:湖南省1984-2015年血吸虫病流行趋势分析
Author: Feiyue LI ¹ ; Hongzhuan TAN ; Guanghui REN ; Qiong JIANG ; Huilan WANG
Author Information

1. 中南大学湘雅公共卫生学院
Keywords: Schistosomiasis; Prevalence; Trend analysis; Regression model
From: Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2017;38(3):350-353
CountryChina
Language:Chinese
Abstract: Objective To analyze the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Hunan province,and provide scientific evidence for the control and elimination of schistosomiasis.Methods The changes of infection rates ofSchistosoma (S.)japonicum among residents and cattle in Hunan from 1984 to 2015 were analyzed by using dynamic trend diagram;and the time regression model was used to fit the infection rates of S.japonicum,and predict the recent infection rate.Results The overall infection rates of S.japonicum in Hunan from 1984 to 2015 showed downward trend (95.29％ in residents and 95.16％ in cattle).By using the linear regression model,the actual values of infection rates in residents and cattle were all in the 95％ confidence intervals of the value predicted;and the prediction showed that the infection rates in the residents and cattle would continue to decrease from 2016 to 2020.Conclusion The prevalence of schistosomiasis was in decline in Hunan.The regression model has a good effect in the short-term prediction of schistosomiasis prevalence.