Forecast the trend of burden from fatal road traffic injuries between 2015 and 2030 in China
10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2014.05.017
- VernacularTitle:中国2015-2030年致死性道路交通伤害负担发展趋势预测
- Author:
Aichun TAN
1
;
Danping TIAN
;
Yuanxiu HUANG
;
Lin GAO
;
Xin DENG
;
Li LI
;
Qiong HE
;
Tianmu CHEN
;
Guoqing HU
;
Jing WU
Author Information
1. 中南大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系
- Keywords:
Road traffic injury;
Burden;
Forecasting
- From:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2014;(5):547-551
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To predict the burden caused by fatal road traffic injuries from 2015 to 2030. Methods We searched the websites of United Nations Population Division,United States Department of Agriculture,World Health Organization,China Energy Research Foundation and other agencies to obtain the predictive values of gross domestic product(GDP)per capita,urbanization, motorization and education from 2015 to 2030 in China. Predicted values were then applied to log-linear models to estimate the numbers and years of life lost due to road traffic injuries from 2015 to 2030. Results The mortality rate caused by road traffic injury decreased slightly,from 13.7/100 000 in 2015 to 11.8/100 000 in 2030. 191,189,183,169 thousand persons were estimated to die from road traffic crashes in 2015,2020,2025 and 2030,respectively,showing a declining trend. Years of Life Lost(YLLs)caused by road traffic deaths were predicted to be 6 918,6 634,6 189,5 513 thousand years in 2015,2020,2025 and 2030,respectively,also showing a gradual downward trend. But the YLLs displayed an increase among people at 55 years of age or older,between 2015 and 2030. Results from the sensitivity analysis showed a stable forecasting result. Conclusion Mortality, number of deaths and YLLs from road traffic crashes were predicted to decrease slightly,between 2015 and 2030 but the number of deaths and YLLs due to road traffic injuries will continue to increase from 2015 to 2030.
