Preliminary analysis of risk prediction model for recurrence and metastasis of thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after radical surgery
10.3760/cma.j.issn.1008-1372.2019.01.025
- VernacularTitle:胸段食管鳞癌根治性术后复发转移风险预测模型的初步分析
- Author:
Yajuan WU
1
;
Xiaomin LI
;
Qi LI
;
Yaqiong REN
Author Information
1. 山西省肿瘤医院放疗胸部二病区
- Keywords:
Esophageal neoplasms;
Neoplasms;
squamous cell;
Esophagectomy;
Neoplasm recurrence,local;
Neoplasm metastasis;
Risk factors
- From:
Journal of Chinese Physician
2019;21(1):98-102
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective The aim of this study is to build a risk prediction model for the recurrence and metastasis of thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after radical surgery,and to analyze the factors affecting the disease free survival (DFS).Methods Conducted analysis of 1 191 patients with thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma,who received radical resection from January 2007 to December 2011.The VaR boundary value of the risk prediction model was obtained by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve,and the boundary value was verified.The factors that affected DFS were analyzed by univariate analysis and Cox multiple factor prognosis analysis.Results There were 472 cases had recurrence and metastasis after treatment.There was a significant difference in VaR between patients with and without failure (t =-5.307,P ≤ 0.001).The VaR boundary value was 0.30 according to ROC curve analysis.The recurrence rate of the patients in the VaR ≤ 0.30 group was 27.5％,which was significantly lower than 48.2％ in the ≥0.30 groups (x2 =51.659,P ≤ 0.001).The univariate analysis showed that the patient's sex,the length of the lesion,the degree of tissue differentiation and the VaR value were all factors that significantly affected the recurrence and metastasis of the patients (x2 =13.460,21.111,17.540,39.175,P ≤0.001).Multivariate analysis showed that tissue differentiation and VaR were independent factors affecting recurrence and metastasis of patients (P ≤ 0.001).Conclusions The model can be applied to predict the recurrence and metastasis risk of patients with thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after radical surgery.
