Score for the Survival Probability in Metastasis Breast Cancer: A Nomogram-Based Risk Assessment Model.
- Author:
Zhenchong XIONG
1
;
Guangzheng DENG
;
Xinjian HUANG
;
Xing LI
;
Xinhua XIE
;
Jin WANG
;
Zeyu SHUANG
;
Xi WANG
Author Information
- Publication Type:Original Article
- Keywords: Breast neoplasms; Metastasis; Mortality rate; Survival; Nomogram
- MeSH: Breast Neoplasms*; Breast*; Calibration; Cohort Studies; Humans; Methods; Mortality; Neoplasm Metastasis*; Nomograms; Risk Assessment*
- From:Cancer Research and Treatment 2018;50(4):1260-1269
- CountryRepublic of Korea
- Language:English
- Abstract: PURPOSE: Survival of metastatic breast cancer (MBC) patient remains unknown and varies greatly from person to person. Thus, we aimed to construct a nomogram to quantify the survival probability of patients with MBC. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We had included 793 MBC patients and calculated trends of case fatality rate by Kaplan-Meier method and joinpoint regression. Six hundred thirty-four patients with MBC between January 2004 and July 2011 and 159 patients with MBC between August 2011 and July 2013 were assigned to training cohort and internal validation cohort, respectively. We constructed the nomogram based on the results of univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses in the training cohort and validated the nomogram in the validation cohort. Concordance index and calibration curves were used to assess the effectiveness of nomogram. RESULTS: Case fatality rate of MBC was increasing (annual percentage change [APC], 21.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0 to 46.3; p < 0.05) in the first 18 months and then decreased (APC, -4.5; 95% CI, -8.2 to -0.7; p < 0.05). Metastasis-free interval, age, metastasis location, and hormone receptor status were independent prognostic factors and were included in the nomogram, which had a concordance index of 0.69 in the training cohort and 0.67 in the validation cohort. Calibration curves indicated good consistency between the two cohorts at 1 and 3 years. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, the fatality risk of MBC was increasing and reached the summit between 13th and 18th month after the detection of MBC. We have developed and validated a nomogram to predict the 1- and 3-year survival probability in MBC.
