Effect of low temperature on influenza based on propensity score analysis
10.3969/j.issn.1002-2694.2018.00.021
- VernacularTitle:基于倾向值匹配研究低温对流行性感冒的影响
- Author:
Xin MING
1
;
Da-Yong XIAO
;
Jing-Jing HE
;
Xun LIU
;
Jia-Jia XIE
;
Yi WANG
;
Dan DENG
Author Information
1. 重庆医科大学公共卫生与管理学院
- Keywords:
low temperature;
influenza;
gradient boosting modeling;
propensity score match
- From:
Chinese Journal of Zoonoses
2018;34(2):165-170
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
We analyzed the trend of flu incidence in Chongqing,explored the independent influence of low temperature on the incidence of influenza and provided reference for the development of influenza prevention and control measures and strategies.Based on the epidemiological data of influenza from 2010-2015 in Chongqing and the meteorological data in the same period of time,using the temperature as the independent variable and the morbidity rate of daily flu as the dependent variable,we use the propensity value to match the balance of pressure,air flow and other confounding factors,establishing four negative binomial regression models.Confounding meteorological factors were balanced by the propensity score.The negative binomial regression model was better than the corresponding model before matching in Chi-square test,Deviance,Scale deviance,AIC and AICC.The lower the daily minimum temperature,the higher the incidence of influenza.The influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of influenza is lagging,and the use of negative binomial regression to control confounding factors before matching may underestimate the impact of temperature on the incidence of influenza.In addition,low temperature may be an important meteorological factor that leads to an increased incidence of influenza.
