Risk prediction and stratification for central lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma
10.3969/j.issn.1006-5725.2017.22.021
- VernacularTitle:甲状腺乳头状癌中央区淋巴结转移风险预测及危险分层
- Author:
Wei YAN
1
;
Tao JIANG
;
Xiao ZHENG
;
Dongxue ZHANG
Author Information
1. 首都医科大学附属北京世纪坛医院内分泌科
- Keywords:
papillary thyroid carcinoma;
lymphatic metastasis;
central lymph node;
risk prediction;
risk stratification
- From:
The Journal of Practical Medicine
2017;33(22):3760-3764
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To establish a risk rating scale for central lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma and make risk stratification.Methods Data of 502 patients with PTC who were treated in Beijing Shijitan Hospital between January 2010 and June 2015 were retrospectively analyzed.The independent predictors for CLNM were found.Then a risk rating scale was established and stratification risk was made.The diagnostic value of the risk rating scale in predicting CLNM was evaluated.Data of 100 patients with PTC who were treated in Beijing Shijitan Hospital between July 2016 and June 2016 were used to validate the risk rating scale.Results A cutoff value of 5 points was found to be the best prediction for CLNM,with the sensitivity and specificity were 73.8％ and 70.2 ％.We definite score ≤ 4.5 as low risk for CLNM,as well as score from 5 to 7 as middle risk,score ≥ 7.5 as high risk.The other data of 100 patients was used to validate the risk rating scale.The sensitivity and specificity were 79.5％ and 78.7 ％ respectively.The positive predictive value and the negative predictive value were 70.5％ and 85.7％ respectively.Conclusions The risk rating scale provide a convenient,intuitive and quantized method to predict CLNM,which is helpful to select suitable surgical strategy and reduce operative complications.
