Semi-quantitative risk assessment of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza epidemic in Zhejiang province.

Tao Yang; Fudong LI; Fan HE

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Semi-quantitative risk assessment of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza epidemic in Zhejiang province.

Author: Tao YANG ¹ ; Fudong LI ² ; Fan HE ²
Author Information

1. Department of Public Health Emergency Management, Yuhang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 311100, China.
2. Department of Public Health Surveillance and Advisory, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310051, China.
Publication Type:Journal Article
MeSH: Animals; Birds; China; Humans; Influenza A Virus, H7N9 Subtype; Influenza in Birds; transmission; Influenza, Human; transmission; Risk Assessment
From: Journal of Zhejiang University. Medical sciences 2018;47(2):131-136
CountryChina
Language:Chinese
Abstract:
OBJECTIVETo assess the risk of local outbreaks of H7N9 avian influenza infection in Zhejiang province and to explore the semi-quantitative assessment method for public health risks in emergency.
METHODSRisk index system of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza caused by local transmission were reviewed. The weights of indexes were calculated by analytic hierarchy process, which was combined with the TOPSIS method to calculate the risk comprehensive index.
RESULTSFour primary indexes and 23 secondary indexes were identified for risk assessment in local outbreaks of H7N9 avian influenza infection. The weights ranked on the top five were:morbidity (0.0972), closure measures (0.0718), sterilization measures (0.0673), fatality rate (0.0651), and epidemic spread (0.0616). The comprehensive index of the risk of local outbreaks of H7N9 avian influenza ranged from high to low were Hangzhou (0.5910), Shaoxing (0.5711), Jiaxing (0.5199), Taizhou (0.5198), Huzhou (0.4662), Ningbo (0.3828), Wenzhou (0.3719), Jinhua (0.3392), Lishui (0.2727), Quzhou (0.2001) and Zhoushan (0.0508).
CONCLUSIONSA semi-quantitative method has been established in this study, which provides scientific basis for prevention and control of H7N9 avian influenza epidemic in Zhejiang province.