Forecast of healthcare professionals quantity in China′s primary medical institutions :based on GM(1 ,1) Gray Model
10.3760/cma.j.issn.1000-6672.2018.01.001
- VernacularTitle:基于灰色模型的我国基层卫生技术人员数量预测分析
- Author:
Xiufang LU
1
;
Chang YIN
;
Xiaoyuan QU
;
Yinfei WU
;
Shuaijun YU
;
Aitian YIN
Author Information
1. 山东大学医药卫生管理学院 国家卫生和计划生育委员会卫生经济与政策研究重点实验室(山东大学)山东大学卫生管理与政策研究中心 山东省新型重点智库 健康领域社会风险预测治理协同创新中心
- Keywords:
Primary medical institutions;
Healthcare professional;
Number;
Gray model;
Forecast
- From:
Chinese Journal of Hospital Administration
2018;34(1):32-38
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To forecast the number of healthcare professionals at China′s primary medical institutions from 2016 to 2020 ,so as to provide the healthcare authorities with references for optimizing healthcare human resource allocation .Methods The Grey model was used to predict numbers of healthcare professionals in China from 2016 to 2020 on the base of health technicians data from 2010 to 2015 .Results The forecast results show that the number of healthcare professionals may be increased to about 600000 people a yearfrom 2015 to 2020 .The number of healthcare professionals at China′s primary medical institutions is expected to grow about 204000 people a year ,and general practitioner is increased to about 22000 people a year .The annual growth rates of medical(assistant) practitioners ,medical practitioners ,registered nurses ,pharmaceutical personnel and examiners in China are expected to be 3.20％ ,2.81％ ,6.88％ ,1.53％ and 2.16％ respectively. The annual average growth rates of postgraduates ,undergraduates and junior college graduates are expected to be 16.95％ ,12.08％ and 5.46％ respectively .Conclusions in the future ,the requirements for healthcare professionals at primary institutions will still be higher than demand in China ,with a gap to be filled and their professional makeup and academic title make to be optimized. Therefore greater efforts are required for their development to enhance their competence and professionalism ,with reasonable staffing of the human resources .
