An early-warning indicator system of brucellosis outbreak
10.3760/cma.j.issn.1000-4955.2011.04.030
- VernacularTitle:布鲁杆菌病爆发流行预警指标体系研究
- Author:
Liang-ping, LU
;
Li, WANG
;
Fen, MA
;
Bo, YANG
;
Xian-jia, ZENG
;
Li, PAN
;
Kang-lin, WAN
;
Hui, LI
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Brucellosis;
Forecasting;
Delphi technique
- From:Chinese Journal of Endemiology
2011;30(4):456-458
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To develop an early-warning indicator system of brucellosis outbreak. Methods The methods of literature review and expert discussion were used to formulate the initiatory framework and indicators, and then Delphi method was used to filter indicators, discuss the boundary of indicators and determine the weighting coefficient. Results The average length of service provided by experts who engaged in prevention and control of brucellosis was (25.10 ± 8.80) years and the positive coefficient of the consultant experts of the two-round results were 95% and 68%, respectively. Kendall coefficients were 0.35, 0.54 and X2R value were 81.31 and 285.27, respectively and P value was all less than 0.01. Five first-level indicators(the host animal, high-risk groups,social environment, index case and the level of previous disease) and 13 secondary indicators were selected to develop the early-warning indicator system of brucellosis outbreak. The weight coefficients of the five first-level indicators were 0.21, 0.22, 0.17, 0.21 and 0.19, respectively. Conclusions The early-waming indicator system of brucellosis outbreak is initially established. We propose to develop the early-warning programs according to local conditions and the indicator system.
