Analysis of risk factors of recurrent uveitis and establishment of prediction model
10.3760/cma.j.issn.2095-0160.2014.07.011
- VernacularTitle:葡萄膜炎患者复发相关危险因素分析及复发预测模型的构建
- Author:
Jin, GONG
;
Ping, WANG
;
Guanghai, QIN
;
Qingguo, YANG
;
Ting, ZHAO
;
Linling, WANG
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Uveitis;
Recurrence;
Risk factor;
Retrospective study;
Prediction;
Regression model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Experimental Ophthalmology
2014;32(7):627-630
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Background Replase of uveitis is a primary cause of vision damage.To predict recurrentassociated factors for uveitis is very critical for the prevention and management of uveitis.Objective This study was to explore the risk factors of recurrent uveitis and establish the prediction model of recurrent uveitis.Methods Clinical data of recurrent uveitis patients who were diagnosed in Renhe Hospital of Three Gorges University from July 1,2010 to June 30,2011 were retrospectively reviewed.The demography characteristics of the patients were collected and the disease was followed-up under the informed consent.Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the disease recurrence rate and to plot relapse-free survival curve at different levels of predictive factors.Multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to select independent risk factors of relapse and establish the prediction model for recurrent uveitis.Results Total 825 cases of recurrent uveitis were included and followed up for 1 month to 38 months,with a median following-up time of 16 months.Relapse of uveitis was identified in 149 cases (18.1％)during the following-up duration.The relapse-free survival time was from 1 month to 38 months,and the 1-,2-and 3-year cumulative recurrence-free survival rates were 87.3％,82.8％ and 80.9％.Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that immunosuppression withdrawal(X1) (β =0.940,Waldx2 =12.018,P =0.001),oral steroid withdrawal (X2) (β =1.334,Wald x2 =18.450,P ＜ 0.001),colds (X3) (β =0.642,Wald x2 =11.988,P =0.001),work and study stress(X4) (β=0.285,Wald x2 =4.925,P=0.026) and excessive alcohol and tobacco(X5) (3--0.541,Wald x2 =4.718,P =0.030) were the independent risk factors for recurrence of uveitis.The risk of recurrence in patients with uveitis function model expression was h (t)=h0 exp (2.559 X1 +3.797 X2 + 1.901 X3 + 1.331 X4 +1.719 X5).Conclusions Replase of uveitis is an interaction of many factors,and immunosuppression withdrawal,oral steroid withdrawal,colds,work and study stress,excessive alcohol and tobacco are independent risk factors for recurrence of uveitis.An intervention according to the controllable factors is one of the important ways to prevent the recurrence of uveitis.
