Aedes larval population dynamics and risk for dengue epidemics in Malaysia
- Author:
Rohani, A.*
;
Suzilah, I.
;
Malinda, M.
;
Anuar, I.
;
Mohd Mazlan, I.
;
Salmah Maszaitun, M.
;
Topek, O.
;
Tanrang, Y.
;
Ooi, S.C.
;
Rozilawati, H.
;
Lee, H.L.
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- From:Tropical Biomedicine
2011;28(2):237-248
- CountryMalaysia
- Language:English
-
Abstract:
Early detection of a dengue outbreak is an important first step towards implementing
effective dengue interventions resulting in reduced mortality and morbidity. A dengue
mathematical model would be useful for the prediction of an outbreak and evaluation of
control measures. However, such a model must be carefully parameterized and validated
with epidemiological, ecological and entomological data. A field study was conducted to
collect and analyse various parameters to model dengue transmission and outbreak. Dengueprone
areas in Kuala Lumpur, Pahang, Kedah and Johor were chosen for this study. Ovitraps
were placed outdoor and used to determine the effects of meteorological parameters on
vector breeding. Vector population in each area was monitored weekly for 87 weeks. Weather
stations, consisting of a temperature and relative humidity data logger and an automated rain
gauge, were installed at key locations in each study site. Correlation and Autoregressive
Distributed Lag (ADL) model were used to study the relationship among the variables. Previous
week rainfall plays a significant role in increasing the mosquito population, followed by
maximum humidity and temperature. The secondary data of rainfall, temperature and humidity
provided by the meteorological department showed an insignificant relationship with the
mosquito population compared to the primary data recorded by the researchers. A well fit
model was obtained for each locality to be used as a predictive model to foretell possible
outbreak.
- Full text:W020150615356982781485.pdf
