Scientific rationale and applicability of dose-reponse models for environmental carcinogens.
- Author:
Dongchun SHIN
;
Yong CHUNG
;
Jongman KIM
;
Seongim G LEE
;
Mansik HWANG
- Publication Type:Original Article
- Keywords:
environmental carcinogens;
dose-response model;
chloroform;
excess cancer risk;
Monte-Carlo analysis
- MeSH:
Animals;
Biological Assay;
Carcinogenesis;
Carcinogens, Environmental*;
Chloroform;
Humans;
Korea;
Water
- From:Korean Journal of Preventive Medicine
1996;29(1):27-42
- CountryRepublic of Korea
- Language:Korean
-
Abstract:
This study described methods to predict human health risk associated with exposure to environmental carciongens using animal bioassay data. Also, biological assumption for various dose-response models were reviewed. To illustrate the process of risk estimate using relevant dose-response models such as Log-normal, Mantel-Bryan, Weibull and Multistage model, we used four animal carcinogenesis bioassy data of chloroform and chloroform concentrations of tap water measured in large cities of korea from 1987 to 1995. As a result, in the case of using average concentration in exposure data and 95 % upper boud unit risk of Multistage model, excess cancer risk(RISK I) was about 1.9 x 10-6, in the case of using probability distribution of cumulative exposure data and unit risks, those risks(RISK II) which were simulated by Monte-Carlo analysis were about 2.4 x 10(-6) and 7.9 x 10(-5) at 50 and 95 percentile, respectively. Therefore risk estimated by Monte-Carlo analysis using probability distribution of input variables may be more conservative.
