Time characteristics of imported malaria cases in Yunnan Province
10.16250/j.32.1374.2016227
- VernacularTitle:云南省输入性疟疾病例时间分布特征分析
- Author:
Xianghua MAO
;
Yan DENG
;
Ying DONG
;
Mengni CHEN
;
Yanchun XU
;
Chun WEI
;
Yerong TANG
- Keywords:
Malaria;
Imported;
Time characteristic;
Yunnan Province
- From:
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control
2017;29(4):445-448
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To investigate the time distribution characteristics and the epidemic trends of imported malaria cases in Yunnan Province. Methods The malaria case records and epidemiological history data of Yunnan Province were collected, and the local infection cases were excluded. The data were statistical analyzed. Results The imported malaria cases had a sig-nificantly seasonal periodicity(Q=26.574,P<0.05)and epidemic trends(Q=35.487,P<0.05). The imported peak was in May,while February was the lowest month of imported cases,and the difference was significant(Z=-2.619,P<0.05). The simple seasonal prediction model was the best model(R2= 0.677,BIC = 4.867)for forecast while the residual sequence was white noise(Q=14.226,P>0.05). By using the model to predict the cases in January,February and March of 2016,the num-ber(95％CI)were 29(7-50),22(0-44)and 31(8-54),and the actual number of imported malaria cases were 29,24 and 38 cases respectively and all cases were included in the 95％CI. Conclusion The imported malaria cases in Yunnan Province had a significantly seasonal periodicity and epidemic trends,and the established model has good prediction on the recent cases.
