Application of multiple seasonal ARIMA model in predication of birth defect incidence in Xi'an area
10.7652/jdyxb201703010
- VernacularTitle:自回归求和移动平均乘积季节模型在西安地区出生缺陷预测中的应用
- Author:
Li ZHANG
;
Baibing MI
;
Xiaomei XIANG
;
Hui SONG
;
Min DONG
;
Shuiping ZHANG
;
Qi ZHANG
;
Lingling WANG
;
Pengfei QU
;
Shaonong DANG
- Keywords:
birth defect;
multiple seasonal ARIMA model;
prediction
- From:
Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University(Medical Sciences)
2017;38(3):371-374,426
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To predict the incidence of birth defects in Xi'an using the auto-regressive integrated moving average product seasonal model.Methods In Xi'an,the trend of the incidence of birth defects was analyzed and tested from October 2009 to August 2015.Using the data from September to December 2015,the actual birth defects were compared with the model fitting data to evaluate the predictive performance of the model.Multiple seasonal ARIMA model was then fitted under time series to predict the incidence of birth defects in 2016.Results Seasonal effect was seen in the incidence of birth defects in Xi'an.A multiple seasonal ARIMA(0,0,1) (0,1,1)12 was established.The mean of absolute error and the relative error were 9.5 and 0.084,respectively,when compared to the simulated number of patients from September to December in 2015,suggesting that ARIMA (0,0,1) (0,1,1)12 has a better predictive ability.Results under the prediction of multiple seasonal ARIMA model showed that the number of patients in 2016 was similar to that of 2015 in Xi'an,with a slight increase and a decrease in the peak value.Conclusion Multiple seasonal ARIMA(0,0,1)(0,1,1)12 model could be used to successfully predict the incidence of birth defects in Xi'an.
