Temporal Trend and Prediction of Mortality of Life Lost due to Esophageal Cancer in Residents in Tieling
- VernacularTitle:辽宁铁岭城市居民食管癌死亡趋势分析及灰色模型预测
- Author:
Liang ZHANG
;
Wen LU
;
Xia ZHAO
- Keywords:
Esophageal cancer;
Mortality;
Prediction;
GM(1,1) model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Health Statistics
2017;34(2):247-249
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the trend of mortality and years of life lost due to Esophageal Cancer in residents in Tieling,so as to provide the basis data on preventing Esophageal cancer in Tieling.Methods The data of residents in Tieling dying of Esophageal cancer from 2007 to 2015 was collected and cleared up to calculate the evaluation indexes including the mortality rate,the average percentage change of mortality rate.GM(1,1) model was used to predict the future mortality.Results From 2007 to 2015,the Average Esophageal cancer Mortality Rate of in residents in Tieling was 5.26 per 100000 persons,and especially 1.95％ raised a year.The Mortality Rate would increase from 2016 to 2019.Conclusion Tieling Esophageal Cancer mortality rate is on the rise,especially for elder men more than 60.So that the proper prevention measures should be car ried and strengthened.
