Application of epidemic dynamics model in isolating hospital-acquired rotavirus infection
10.3969/j.issn.1671-9638.2017.05.017
- VernacularTitle:传染病动力学模型在隔离预防轮状病毒医院感染中的应用
- Author:
Huang HUANG
;
Xuzheng SHAN
;
Yunshu LONG
;
Chunqiong XU
- Keywords:
rotavirus;
healthcare-associated infection;
SEIR;
infantile diarrhea;
contact isolation
- From:
Chinese Journal of Infection Control
2017;16(5):470-473
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To establish an epidemic dynamics model of the transmission and prevention strategies of rotavirus infection in hospital.Methods Rotavirus SEIR model based on different isolation measures was constructed using epidemic dynamics method, the effectiveness of isolation measures was evaluated.Results Supposing that all patients were isolated, isolation measures were taken on the 3rd day of transmission, there were 4.3 cases of infection on the 5th day of transmission, peaked on the 7th day(n=6.4), until the 14th day of transmission, the number of infected persons fell to 3.4 cases.If isolation measures were taken on the 2nd day of transmission, the infected persons reached 4.0 on the 6th day, and reduced to 3.2 cases on the 8th day.If isolation measures were taken on the 1st day of transmission, the infected persons reached 2.4 at most, healthcare-associated infection would not occur.Early isolation can effectively prevent the outbreak of rotavirus infection, the later the isolation, the more the infection occurs and the longer the outbreak lasts.Conclusion Rotavirus infection can easily break out in hospital, early discovery and early isolation of rotavirus infected child is the effective measure to avoid rotavirus infection outbreak in hospital.
