Application of Neural Network in Forecasting Emergencies Caused by Meteorological Factors

VernacularTitle:人工神经网络在气象因素预测急症发病中的应用
Author: Lei GAO ; Bing LIU ; Qiao LI
Publication Type:Journal Article
Keywords: emergencies; meteorological factors; artificial neural network; forecast
From: Chinese Journal of Medical Physics 2010;27(2):1806-1809,1820
CountryChina
Language:Chinese
Abstract: Objective: By analyzing the relationship between the meteorological factors and the outbreak of emergencies, an artificial neutral network model was established in order to make the medical-meteorological forecast and to reduce and prevent the emergencies. Methods: The data of emergency cases and meteorological factors within the same time in 2007 and 2008 in Ji'nan, China were collected and analyzed by using SAS9.0. The back-propagation (BP) artificial neutral network model was built by using Matlab7.0. Results: A close relationship exists between the meteorological factors as well as their changes and emergencies. The results of forecast show high accuracy rate of each emergency (76% ～ 89%) except CO poisoning (46%). Conclusions: This emergencies medical-meteorological forecasting model based on BP neutral network has good prediction effect and the value of further research.