Study on the Feasibility for ARIMA Model Application to Predict Malaria Incidence in an Unstable Malaria Area
- VernacularTitle:非稳定性疟区用时间序列模型预测疟疾发病率的可行性研究
- Author:
Jimin ZHU
;
Linhua TANG
;
Shuisen ZHOU
;
Fang HUANG
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Time series;
ARIMA model;
Prediction;
Malaria;
Incidence
- From:
Chinese Journal of Parasitology and Parasitic Diseases
1987;0(03):-
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the application of seasonal time series ARIMA model in prediction of malaria incidence in an unstable malaria area. Methods SPSS13.0 software was used to construct the ARIMA model based on the monthly malaria incidence of Huaiyuan and Tongbai counties in Huaihe River Valley, from Jan. 1998 to Dec. 2005, with consideration of residual un-correlation and concision. Akaike′s information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) were used to confirm the fitness of model. The constructed model was then applied to predict the monthly malaria incidence in 2006 and the incidence from ARIMA model was compared with the actual incidence, so as to evaluate the model′s validity. Malaria incidence of 2007 was predicted by ARIMA model based on malaria incidence from 1998 to 2006. Results Statistics assisted estimation of the significance of the fitted autoregressive and seasonal moving average coefficients (AR1=0.512, SMA1=0.609, P
