Application of residual grey model(1,1) to the prediction of tuberculosis prevalence
- VernacularTitle:应用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)对结核病发病率进行预测
- Author:
Jing YI
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Time series;
Residual Grey Model(1,1);
Tuberculosis prevalence
- From:
Journal of Chongqing Medical University
1986;0(03):-
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To discuss the application of residual Grey Model(1,1) in the time series data to set up the prediction model for Tuberculosis prevalence.Methods:Grey Model(1,1)was set up by using the material on Tuberculosis prevalence collected by Tuberculosis Prevention and Treatment Institute of Chongqing city from 1993 to 2003,and then used to predict the Tuberculosis prevalence of 2004.Results:The residual Grey Model(1,1)is ■(1)(k+1)=89.5776e0.0392k-85.0913+?(k-1)1.6435e-0.3068k,the relative error values of predictive value for 1993 to 2003 were all less than 0.05,and the degree of grey incidence was bigger than 0.6,and the little error probability was bigger than 0.8;The predictive prevalence value in 2004 was 5.2942 per 100 thousands,the relative error was 0.0461 and the modified one was 0.0121.Conclusion:The residual grey model(1,1) had a good fitness and can be used to predict tuberculosis prevalence with high prediction precision in short-term time series.
