Forecast of the indicators on maternal and child health of China in 2020 using auto-regressive model
- VernacularTitle:应用残差自回归模型预测2020年我国妇幼卫生健康指标
- Author:
Zhenghong REN
;
Lin AN
;
Lingli ZHANG
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Forecasting;
Models statistical;
Infant mortality;
Maternal mortality;
Child mortality
- From:
Journal of Peking University(Health Sciences)
2004;0(02):-
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To forecast the indicators on maternal and child health of China in 2020.Methods: Based on Surveillance data of the indicators on the maternal and child health in China since the 1990s,forecasting models were found using auto-regressive method,and the indicators on maternal and child health in China in 2020 were forecasted using the models after they had been tested and valued.Results: Auto-regressive models on infant mortality rate(IMR),under-5 mortality rate(U5MR) and maternal mortality(MMR) were found.The models and their parameters passed statistical tests,and their mean absolute error was 5% or so and determination coefficients were all more than 90%.Conclusion: The IMR of China in 2020 was forecasted to be 6.35‰,the U5MR 7.37‰ and the MMR 22.21/100 000.
