Establishment and evaluation of the early warning model for apostasis of postoperative patients with cerebral tumor
10.3760/cma.j.issn.1672-7088.2017.08.007
- VernacularTitle:颅脑肿瘤患者术后病情恶化早期预警模型的建立与效能评价
- Author:
Yuanyuan CHEN
;
Wei WANG
;
Xin XU
;
Jing LIU
- Keywords:
Brain neoplasms;
Apostasis;
Early alarming model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Practical Nursing
2017;33(8):587-590
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To establish the early warning model for apostasis of postoperative patients with cerebral tumor, predict the risk of apostasis, so as to realize the early control and prevention. Methods Nine hundreds and ninety-five cerebral tumor patients were enrolled in a prospective investigation, the clinical data were collected and analyzed to make the early warning model by Logistic regression analysis. Results Collected 995 valid questionnaires, 149 cases(15.6%, 149/995) need unplanned transfer to ICU, 50 cases(5.0%, 59/995) need unscheduled second operation. The early warning model was established by Logistic regression analysis based on pupil, Glasgow Coma Scale(GCS) score, Modified Early Warning Score(MEWS) three indicators associated with disease progression:Z=0.1×pupil+0.8× GCS score+2.5×MEWS.Then the effectiveness of the model was verified by ROC curve, and the results showed that the area under the curve was 0.852(95%CI 0.816-0.887), sensitivity was 80.5%, specificity was 80.5%, accuracy was 85.0%, Youden index was 0.61, positive likelihood was 4.128, negative likelihood was 0.242. Conclusions The early warning model can predict the apostasis events of postoperative patients with cerebral tumor, also can prevent the complications and improve the quality life of patients.
